Are South Wales House Prices Likely to Rise or Fall This Month?

Posted on: 05th September 2025 | Filled under: Property Market Tips And Tricks
Written by: Mark King

The big question on everyone’s lips right now is: “Mark, did house prices rise or fall in South Wales in August? And what might happen this September?” So I’ve pulled the data, and here’s what it tells us.

How Prices Performed in August (Looking Back at Q2)

According to the Principality Building Society, average home prices across Wales in Q2 (April to June 2025) were £238,098. That’s 0.7%higher than the same period last year and just 4.6 % below the 2022 peak of around £249,000. Price movements varied by area—Torfaen led with a quarterly increase of 14 %, while Gwynedd saw a 7.3 % drop  .
Regionally, Wales recorded a 2.6 % annual increase in average house prices, compared to 3.3 % in England, as tracked by the ONS HPI for the year to June  .
In Cardiff specifically, the average price reached £268,000 in June 2025—a 3.2 % rise year-on-year, which outpaced the broader Welsh average .

So looking back, August likely continued the trend of steady but modest price growth—especially in stronger-performing parts of South Wales like Cardiff and Torfaen.

What’s Likely to Happen in September (My View)

Here’s what I’m expecting as we move into September:

Prices will likely remain stable or inch higher, supported by transaction numbers holding firm. Wales is showing increased buyer activity despite affordability pressures  .
The growing supply is easing price pressure. Across the UK, more homes for sale—up about 10 % year-on-year—are helping cool inflation in asking prices  .
National forecasts point to restrained growth. Zoopla and Savills both expect overall UK house price hikes in 2025 to remain around 1–2 %  . Wales may perform slightly better, but any gains will likely be modest.
Buyer demand is returning, particularly in Wales and Northern England, helping maintain a stable market  .

My Bottom-Line Thoughts

If I’m advising a South Wales buyer or seller today, here’s how I’d put it:

August likely saw modest price gains, particularly in stronger areas like Cardiff.
September looks set for stability, with a slight lean toward upward movement—especially if demand stays steady and listings don’t flood the market.
A sharp price fall is unlikely, unless something unexpected shifts affordability or economic confidence.
Overall, the safest assumption is a balanced market, with prices holding firm or nudging upward.

Tip

Keep your eyes on local numbers, not just national headlines. South Wales is its own market; parts like Cardiff and Torfaen are performing better, while some rural areas remain flat. That’s real insight, not just averages.