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If UK Exit The EU, Will House Prices Fall?

UK exit from the EU could result in house prices dropping by 5%

Current UK Housing Market As Part Of The EU

Britain joined the EU in 1973, and since then we have seen a significant increase in property value estimated at 2000%.
However we are now approaching threats with the uncertainty of the referendum.

Economist Howard Archer has some interesting words on why both builders and buyers may be holding back and sitting on their hands:

“Current increased domestic economic and political uncertainties could be reining in housing market activity, especially in the run-up to June’s EU referendum, Consequently, house prices have been softer over the past few months”

He also added that he expects the housing market to regain momentum in the second half of 2016. This on the assumption that a vote for the UK to remain in the EU will reduce uncertainty and support a “pick-up” in the economic activity.

What Would A Brexit do to the British Housing Market?

Russell Quirk, property expert said: “Should the UK public vote to leave the EU, we believe it could have a detrimental knock on effect to the UK property market. We’ve been part of the EU for over 40 years now, so it’s understandable that such a momentous change will lead to uncertainty amongst the UK public, as to the resulting implications an exit will have on them.” Read More Here.

The European referendum could decrease the property housing market by up to 5%. If the UK exits the EU in 2016, average property value will see a decrease of £11’000. The poll is set to take place on the 23rd of June 2016.

House prices have been falling, will they continue to fall in June?

There seems to be an “uncomfortable” feel sweeping the property market this month, and with GOOD reason. House prices are dropping, and there is a looming threat of a Brexit.

These statistics have been released from the land registry, which confirm that house prices are on the decrease

data taken from the land registry (  https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/land-registry  )

Wales faces property value plunge!

With Wales being in the bottom 4% faced with the largest decline it’s no wonder there is an uncomfortable feeling in the air.

The welsh property market is changing and this is shocking news to Welsh homeowners. Apart from London and the East, the rest of the regions in England and Wales saw House Prices Falling in May 2016.

Overall, house prices in Wales and England fell 0.5pc, and this fall takes the Average Paid House Price in England and Wales to £189,901.

It comes as no surprise to me that I am hearing the question, “Will House Prices Drop” even more in June and July 2016?With Wales being in the bottom 4% faced with the largest decline it’s no wonder there is an uncomfortable feeling in the air.

The welsh property market is changing and this is shocking news to Welsh homeowners. Apart from London and the East, the rest of the regions in England and Wales saw House Prices Falling in May 2016.

Overall, house prices in Wales and England fell 0.5pc, and this fall takes the Average Paid House Price in England and Wales to £189,901.

It comes as no surprise to me that I am hearing the question, “Will House Prices Drop” even more in June and July 2016?

A precursor to a period of significant uncertainty in the housing market

Just look at what independent buyer and industry commentator Henry Pryor said recently;

I have worked through three property recessions and this has an uncomfortable yet familiar feel. I think the market is on the turn

Lets take a closer look at the House Prices Falling

Henry Pryor’s comments on the Chancellor’s hike make a lot of sense.

“While we don’t get the tissues out for those struggling to sell their £3m homes, it will hit the wider market”

“A slowdown starts in luxury London and traditionally ripples out. It might not get to Shropshire until next spring but it will get there”

One central London estate agent told the Telegraph ( https://www.telegraph.co.uk/ )

“Prices needed to come down at the top end of the market by up to 30pc in some cases”

More comments from our friend Mr Pryor:

“The infection from luxury to mainstream is much more transferable than anyone imagines, and these are the reasons why I am troubled by the Land Registry figures”

So all in all, what is actually going on here?

To best answer this question we must turn our attention to A Fall in House Sales. As the Land Registry data reviled (view the land registry here), there was a sizable fall in the number of completed House Sales in England and Wales between January 2015 and 2016.
A fall to 54,254 sales in 2016 (5pc) compared to 56,937 in 2015.

When the Chancellor introduced the most famous 3pc increase in stamp duty there were reports flying around stating a “rush” to buy a second home, or a property ahead of April.

The recent fall in sales does seem to disperse these reports.

We were expecting higher transaction levels in the first three months of the year as the stamp duty deadline approaches. But with the number of completed house sales in England and Wales falling by 5pc in January compared with the same month last year, there does not seem to have been the stampede that many expected” said Jeremy Leaf, former chairman of Rics (Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors).

Jeremy Leaf also has quoted the following:

A decline in number of property transactions continues to be a worry, as if people aren’t able to move in and out of the market when they want to, there will be an inevitable knock-on effect for the rest of the economy. On the ground we want to see more balance between supply and demand